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The following section will teach you everything you need to know about expected value. For most bets, calculating your expected value or EV is simple.
Imagine you are flipping a coin with a friend. What is the expected value for you? The math looks like this:. This is the same math used in any EV calculation, though things can get more complicated if you have to include the possibility of winning different amounts or that the bet could push.
In European roulette , almost every bet has the same house edge. If a single number bet wins, it pays out at odds of We even have pages about other advantage blackjack techniques like shuffle tracking.
Video poker games resemble slot machines, but they offer players much better odds of winning. And getting better odds of winning is something everyone should be interested in.
Finally, video poker is a game that rewards skilled play. This is just too much pressure for some players. That means if you need an ace to fill your straight, you can calculate the odds of getting that card.
There are 4 aces in the deck—no more, no less. With a slot machine, you have NO way of knowing what the likelihood of getting a particular symbol on a particular reel is.
A cherry might be programmed to come up once every 10 spins, or it might be programmed to come up once every spins. You have no way to know.
As a result, the payback percentage for a video poker machine can be calculated. The payback percentage for a slot machine can be calculated, too. But not by you.
Even video poker games with less than ideal pay tables pay more than slots. In fact, for players with my temperament, learning strategy is fun.
Craps might be the most intimidating game in the casino. You have lots of people standing around the table, the bets all have funny names, and you even need an entire crew of people just to run a single game.
This is a game with a lot moving parts, but at the end of the day, it all boils down to someone shooting dice and hoping to get certain numbers.
Another drawback is that the game is as streaky as a casino game can be. You can easily lose hundreds of dollars at the craps table in a matter of moments.
Finally, some of the bets at the craps table offer some of the worst odds in the casino. There are only 2 dice in use, and there is only one shooter at a time.
Her goal then changes. She now wants to roll the point before rolling a 7. The simplest bet at the table is a bet on whether or not the shooter is going to succeed or fail.
But the game also offers the only bet in the casino which has a 0 house edge. This is called an odds bet. This bet is a multiple of your original bet, and the maximum amount you can bet on this option is pre-determined by the casino.
This hedges your risk in a dramatic way. The more money the casino lets you place on the odds bet, the better your odds become. Just stick with the simple bets on the table and avoid the ones that seem complicated.
That puts this game on a par with blackjack. The only strategy for this game is to avoid the bets which have a high house edge and focus on the bets with a low house edge.
Craps is also one of the most social games in any casino. People are jumping up and down, yelling, and giving each other high fives constantly.
I mentioned earlier that the game is, by its nature, streaky. Few gambling experiences are more exciting than getting involved with a craps table with a hot shooter.
And if you think the game is too intimidating, look for the casino game class schedule at the casino. Almost all casinos offer these in the mornings and in the afternoons.
It has advantages and disadvantages over other card games in the casino, but one of the biggest advantages the game offers is its relatively low house edge.
Baccarat is a simple guessing game. The dealer gets a hand and the player gets a hand. This game is perfect for high rollers, as the stakes are generally available.
I probably sounded pretty down on slot machines when I wrote about video poker earlier, but the reality is that for the right type gambler, slot machines are an excellent choice.
But not all slot machine games are created equally. You put your money in, you spin the reels, and you accept your luck. The best slot machines are the ones played at the higher denominations.
If you get in over your head financially, it can be disastrous, and that can happen really quickly. Another consideration is how complicated the game is.
The general rule of thumb is that the payback percentage on the simpler games is higher than for the more complicated games.
A 3 reel slot machine almost always has a better payout percentage than that of a 5 reel slot machine. For example, you plan on playing a 2. You actual results may vary by a lot , but this is the expected cost over the long term.
Now, compare that number to the amount of bonus money you stand to win. In this example, the bonus is a good deal.
Not all bonuses are so generous, though. And that is why it is good to understand the relationship between bonuses and expected value.
Please see this blog post for a more detailed explanation for calculating the EV of bonuses. A Basic Explanation of Expected Value Expected value is a concept in probability that describes the average outcome of a random event.
To calculate the expected value of any gambling game, you need just two key pieces of information: The odds of each outcome occurring The payouts of each outcome With that information, you can tell if any gambling game, wager or bonus is profitable or not.
There are only two things that you need to know: The total amount of wagers that you plan to place The house advantage of the game You can calculate the EV of any casino game by multiplying the amount of money that you plan to wager by the house advantage.
What this Means for Bonuses What this all means is that you can figure out the expected value for any casino bonus if you have the following information: The wagering requirements House advantage of the game you will play Size of the bonus Whenever you have a casino bonus that you want to get, look for the wagering requirements.
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